S&P 500 futures held flat early Monday as growing doubts over a US-Iran Strait of Hormuz deal and an upcoming week of inflation data kept traders cautious ahead of key CPI and PPI reports.
US stock futures opened the week on a quiet, cautious note, with investors weighing fading hopes for a near-term Strait of Hormuz resolution against a busy calendar of inflation data and corporate earnings due out over the coming days.
Where Futures Stood Early Monday
S&P 500 futures were essentially flat in early trading, while Nasdaq-100 futures added about 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped roughly 58 points, or 0.11%. The muted moves reflect a market caught between conflicting signals — geopolitical uncertainty on one side, and a wait-and-see approach ahead of this week’s inflation readings on the other.
Asian markets, by contrast, showed more clearly positive momentum overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 0.54%, while the Topix ticked up modestly. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.53%, and the small-cap Kosdaq index jumped 1.48%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.54% as well, suggesting regional sentiment remained more upbeat than the more cautious tone seen in early US futures trading.
Hormuz Optimism Fades Over the Weekend
Much of the market’s hesitation traces back to a familiar source of uncertainty: the Strait of Hormuz. Investor optimism that the US and Iran might be nearing an agreement to allow free vessel transit through the critical waterway dimmed noticeably over the weekend, after Iran’s foreign minister denied that Tehran was engaged in any direct negotiations with Washington over reopening the strait.
That denial complicates a picture that had appeared to be improving just days earlier, when reports suggested the US, Iran, and Oman were working toward an interim arrangement to manage ship traffic through the strait. Adding to the uncertainty, some Iranian officials have floated the possibility of restricting US, Israeli, and other “hostile” vessels under any new shipping agreement with Oman — a condition that would fall well short of the full, unrestricted reopening Washington has pushed for.
Oil Prices Reflect the Uncertainty
Energy markets have been trading directly on these back-and-forth signals. Brent crude futures for October delivery rose about 1.04% to $84.42 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures for September climbed 0.83% to $78.83 per barrel. Oil had already advanced roughly 1% over the weekend to trade just above $79 a barrel, as traders continued to price in the risk that a comprehensive Hormuz deal may still be some distance away.
This pattern of oil prices climbing on Hormuz-related uncertainty has become a recurring theme in recent weeks, with crude repeatedly reacting to shifting headlines out of Tehran and Washington. Higher energy prices, in turn, have started reviving broader inflation concerns among investors, given their direct impact on transportation and production costs across the economy.
What’s on the Calendar This Week
No major economic data is scheduled for release Monday, giving markets a relatively quiet start to the week. That will change quickly, though, with consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) readings both due out in the coming days — reports investors will be watching closely for fresh signals on whether inflation pressures are easing or reaccelerating.
Earnings season also continues in full swing. Consumer-facing companies including On Holding and Cava Group are set to report results this week, alongside technology names like Super Micro and CoreWeave. With markets already sensitive to how AI-related capital spending is being received by investors, results from names like Super Micro and CoreWeave could carry outsized influence on tech sector sentiment.
The Bigger Picture
This week’s trading setup captures a market trying to balance two very different forces: a geopolitical situation that remains genuinely fluid and capable of moving oil prices sharply in either direction, and a domestic economic calendar that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy depending on how the inflation data comes in. With both storylines still unresolved, investors are likely to stay cautious and reactive to headlines in the days ahead, rather than committing firmly to a directional bet before more clarity emerges on either front.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why are S&P 500 futures flat today? Futures are holding steady as investors weigh fading optimism over a Strait of Hormuz resolution against anticipation of this week’s key inflation data releases.
Q: Is the Strait of Hormuz deal between the US and Iran still happening? It remains uncertain. Iran’s foreign minister denied engaging in direct talks with the US over the weekend, even as earlier reports suggested progress toward an interim shipping agreement involving Oman.
Q: Why are oil prices rising despite talk of a potential Hormuz deal? Oil prices are climbing largely due to uncertainty rather than confidence — traders are pricing in the risk that a full resolution may not arrive soon, especially after reports that Iran could restrict certain vessels even under a new agreement.
Q: What economic data are investors watching this week? The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) reports are due out this week and will be closely watched for updated signals on inflation trends.
Q: Which companies are reporting earnings this week? Notable earnings are expected from On Holding, Cava Group, Super Micro, and CoreWeave, spanning both consumer and technology sectors.
